‘The economic situation in our industry remains tense. And we’re not out of the woods yet. Nevertheless, the declines are smaller than expected.’ With these three sentences, Burkhard Stork, managing director of the German bicycle industry association ZIV, begins his initial statement on the sales performance of the German bicycle industry in 2024. When the introduction to an industry’s annual review is so open, it’s clear that the following figures will offer little cause for celebration. In fact, many of the key figures start with a minus sign. However, in some cases these indicate a certain plus. This is because the expectation for some time was that things would get even worse.
1. What factors determined the sales year 2024?
2. How many ebikes were sold in Germany in 2024?
3. How much money is spent on an ebike?
4. What are the most popular types of ebike?
5. Where do people buy?
6. Bicycle stock in Germany
7. Ebike production in Germany
8. Export of ebikes from Germany
9. Import of ebikes to Germany
10. Forecast for 2025
1. What factors determined the sales year 2024?
Fewer sales. Lower turnover. Decline in production, import and export. In view of the conditions of the past year, these results are not surprising. Due to the overproduction from 2022 and 2023, manufacturers and dealers started 2024 with some warehouses still full. After a gap of around 20 years, Germany’s economy again experienced the phenomenon of two consecutive years of recession. Consumer prices rose for the fourth year in a row. News of wars in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, as well as the long-foreseen demise of the German government, understandably ensured that people had other things to worry about than buying a new bicycle or ebike.
2. How many ebikes were sold in Germany in 2024?
The negative signs have hardly left a mark on ebike sales in Germany in 2024. With 2.05 million ebikes sold, only around 95,000 fewer were sold than in the previous year. The decline from 2.1 million to 2.05 million represents a drop of just under 2.5 per cent. This means that sales have fluctuated between two million and 2.2 million units since 2020.
Compared to bicycles without electric assistance, the ebike has thus been able to maintain its position. For the second time ever, it accounts for the majority of sales, at 53 per cent. As a reminder, in 2020, the share was just under 39 per cent. According to ZIV managing director Burkhard Stork, this is far from the end of the story. He continues to consider ebikes as having high growth potential. There are still a large number of older regular bicycles in use in Germany that could very well be replaced by ebikes. Therefore, the ratio of ebikes to bicycles without electric drive will settle at 75 per cent to 25 per cent in the future.
In parallel to ebike sales, regular bicycle sales also proved to be surprisingly robust. The decline from 1.9 million units to 1.8 million units in 2024 was moderate. A total of 3.85 million ebikes and regular bicycles were sold, which was only 2.53 per cent less than in 2023. At that time, 3.95 million units were sold across all distribution channels.
3. How much money is spent on an ebike?
A glance at the price development of bicycles sold shows why the mood in the industry is nevertheless spoiled. In particular, there is a noticeable decline in ebikes. On average, people spent around 300 euros less on a new vehicle than in the previous year, with the figure now standing at 2,650 euros. This corresponds to a decrease of about 10.1 per cent. Of course, the falling sales also mean falling profits and thus less money for own investments, salaries and so on.
The reason for the sharp drop in sales prices is the high pressure on retailers to sell. In addition to full warehouses, new orders had already been placed for current models. However, there is not enough space for both. As a result, ebikes were offered at extremely low prices in sometimes unprecedented discount battles to create the necessary storage space. However, with a gradual normalisation of the situation, the price pressure should decrease again in the near future and discounts should become less common.
Contrary to this trend, the average sales price for regular bicycles rose. The increase of 30 euros to 500 euros represents a growth of 6.4 per cent. According to the ZIV, people in Germany spent more money on high-quality gravel bikes and road bikes in particular. Due to the higher purchase price of ebikes and their slight preponderance in the sales figures, the price level nevertheless fell overall by eight per cent to 1,645 euros.
4. What are the most popular types of ebike?
When it comes to deciding on the various ebike types, the motto is ‘business as usual’. Almost. In 2024, e-mountain bikes are still at the top of the list of ebike riders’ favourites. Their share even grew slightly by one percent to 40 percent. One reason for this is likely to be the growing diversity in this category. There are now electrified versions of almost every MTB variant – whether cross-country, trail, all-mountain or enduro.
Behind them, e-trekking bikes and e-city bikes are two other popular and correspondingly strong-selling genres that successfully maintain their place in second and third place. These are followed at some distance by e-cargo bikes. With an unchanged share of nine per cent, it is clear that demand in 2024 was unable to continue the upward trend of previous years. However, remaining at the same level for the past year seems to be more of an achievement for this type of ebike, which is usually associated with higher purchase costs.
A closer look at niches
For the first time, e-gravel bikes and e-road bikes appear separately in the ZIV statistics. Previously, they formed a small group together. The splitting probably follows both the technical differentiation between the two ebike types and their quite different economic development. In 2023, the two together still accounted for a share of one per cent. In 2024, the e-gravel bike already accounted for that share alone. E-road bikes are reported at 0.5 per cent. Consequently, there is growing support for the e-gravel bike, even if the overall picture is still at a relatively low level in terms of the number of units sold.
Ebikes for children are being recorded for the first time. The ZIV expects their share to increase significantly in the coming years. With a current 0.5 per cent for 2024, the group is starting from a low level. This makes it clear that we are currently talking about a very special niche that only a few ebike manufacturers serve.
In contrast, a number of brands offer speed pedelecs in their range. Nevertheless, this has not yet helped the category to achieve a breakthrough, at least in Germany. In fact, its share has fallen from one per cent to 0.5 per cent.
5. Where do people buy?
This time, the overview of the distribution channels through which people in Germany buy ebikes and regular bicycles seems a little unusual. The ZIV has revised its overview. It now combines providers that were previously listed separately. For the first time, all online channels that the industry association classifies as specialist retailers will appear in one category for 2024. So, for example, the online shop of Fahrrad XXL is listed here alongside a drop shipper like YT Industries and an online-only shop like Ebike24. Especially for all internet retailers, this feels like a certain upgrade, as they are now officially considered specialist retailers.
The majority of people in Germany buy from precisely these specialist retailers. In around 70 per cent of cases, this is a brick-and-mortar store and in around 20 per cent of cases, it is an online store. Compared to the 2023 forecast, the proportions vary only slightly.
Ebikes and regular bikes are also sold by DIY stores, food retailers with all their supermarket chains, and general online platforms such as Amazon, Ebay and others. The ZIV also shows these in their stationary and digital forms. It is striking how clearly the focus is on online purchases.
6. Bicycle stock in Germany
If more and more bicycles are being sold and fewer are being scrapped, the number in use will naturally increase. This has been happening in Germany for many years, mainly due to the long half-life of regular bicycles. And to its own surprise, the ZIV found that ebikes are also in use longer than assumed. Until now, the association had assumed a lifespan of between four and five years. However, more recent figures show that people only part with their ebike after eight or nine years.
The ZIV came to this conclusion after examining what actually ends up in the scrap bins over the past 18 months. This means that primarily disposed batteries were read. But if ebikes are being ridden for longer than previously thought, the figures for the past cannot have been correct. That is why the ZIV has revised the figures for the years 2014 to 2023 upwards.
More bikes than inhabitants
This adjustment has already been taken into account for 2024. That is why the jump from 2023 to 2024, from 11 million to 15.7 million, seems strikingly large – if you take the outdated figures as a basis. In the now corrected balance, on the other hand, the increase is only two million units. An interesting side note: The federal government, which resigned in December 2024, had set a target of getting 15 million ebikes on the road by 2030 in its transport planning. At least it has significantly exceeded this target – without knowing it.
With higher numbers of ebikes in use, the number of bikes in use overall automatically jumps a little higher. Regular bicycles also contributed to this, with 73 million in 2024. In total, there are now around 89 million bicycles and ebikes in Germany. That’s around five million more than the number of people living in this country.
7. Ebike production in Germany
Production in Germany fell sharply in 2024. Both ebikes and regular bikes were unable to match the 2023 figures. With 1,330,000 units, 14.8 per cent fewer ebikes left local factories. In the previous year, the figure was still 1,561,000 units. For regular bicycles, the ZIV recorded a decline of 11.7 per cent to 641,000 units, after 726,000 units had been produced in 2023. Here, too, the still-high inventory levels are having an effect. If more than enough has to be sold, fewer units are automatically ordered and produced. The current level roughly corresponds to the 2019 balance.
Of course, German manufacturers have long since had their products manufactured abroad as well. An additional 480,000 ebikes and regular bicycles were produced there. However, this is only about a third of what was added in 2023. The bottom line is that the industry had to cope with a minus of 18.3 per cent. From almost three million units in the past, it fell to 2.45 million units.
8. Export of ebikes from Germany
The export sector had more encouraging news to report. In 2024, the balance fell by only 27,000 ebikes to 582,000 ebikes. Given these figures, Germany is continuing to establish itself as a major exporter in this sector. Almost one in four of these vehicles, 24 per cent, goes to the Netherlands, a neighbouring country. Other strong buyers with double-digit figures are Austria with twelve per cent, as well as France and Belgium with eleven per cent each.
By contrast, the situation for regular bicycles is less positive. Exports fell by almost 15 per cent, or 120,000 units, to 670,000 units. This follows a downward trend that has been evident since 2021.
9. Import of ebikes to Germany
The import statistics illustrate how dramatic 2024 has been for parts of the bicycle industry. At a good 30 per cent, the drop here is more than substantial. No other key figure in the sales balance for the previous year fell as sharply. Everything indicates that manufacturers and retailers were able to cover large parts of the already lower demand with their own stocks. The 2.44 million units for 2024 instead of the previous 3.48 million units from 2023 speak for themselves.
In terms of ebikes, the figure fell from 1.22 million to 860,000. The last time there were fewer was in 2017. The answer to the question of where the ebikes come from is noteworthy. This is a clear reflection of manufacturers’ efforts to shorten transport distances and further minimise dependencies such as those from the days of the Corona pandemic. The share of ebikes imported from the European Union, for example, continued to grow. It now stands at 75.3 per cent. Important partner countries here are the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Hungary and the Netherlands, each with double-digit shares.
At the same time, the share of imports originating from Asia continues to decline. In 2024, it fell from 26 per cent to 21.2 per cent. The largest quantities of these imports come from Vietnam and Taiwan.
10. Forecast for 2025
If the balance is so sobering, the question of improvement naturally arises. And the ZIV considers this to be likely. However, in its estimation, patience is still needed. In the current year, things are not expected to change for the better yet. ZIV managing director Burkhard Stork does not expect the market to normalise until 2026.
The high level of stock in particular is still causing some concern for both dealers and manufacturers. ‘We expect the situation to remain strained in 2025 and are hoping for good spring business. The first signs of improvement can already be seen in the repair and accessories business,’ says Katharina Hinse, head of economic and industrial policy at ZIV. And in the long term, there is definitely reason to be optimistic. ‘Demand has remained extremely stable in the bicycle market over a period of several years. There is no reason to assume that the bicycle and ebike market could decline overall in the coming years.’ Well, let’s see in a year’s time whether this forecast can be confirmed in 2025.
Pictures: ZIV German bicycle association