Can Ebikes Make Us Pedal Through Hormuz and Other Dire Straits?

Oil Shocks Foster Sustainable Mobility & Ebike Adoption

It doesn’t take an economist to notice it. Whenever there is an oil shock, i.e. a sudden increase of the price of oil, people, governments and companies endeavour to find ways to limit oil consumption, beat gasoline or gasoil. Bike and ebikes, public transportation, teleworking, electric cars, e-buses and e-trucks suddenly go under the spotlight while the media utter drivers complaints and proposals for remedies. It is as if the wallet where the third year, which very well hears the sound of rising prices.

Could ebikes let us pedal our way out of expensive and harmful fuel?

Historically, every time oil prices increase more than 20%, and maintain that level for more than six months, an economic recession follows. That’s because the world economy is heavily dependent on oil, especially for transportation. Cars account for roughly 50% of the total road transport-related oil consumption and are particularly harmful to urban public health. Let’s see how ebikes could considerably relieve our pain.

Why replacing car with ebikes would be particularly beneficial to the macro-economy

Of course the same could be said four regular bikes, but it has been well demonstrated that ebikes are more likely to replace cars, because they allow a larger public more often riding instead of driving. They require a much more measured effort, and are much more capable of carrying groceries, objects and children.

The direct macroeconomic benefits of swapping cars for E bikes

Costly imports of oil and in many cases of cars, or raw materials to produce them, would be reduced, improving the trade balance. Cities would be more attractive for tourists. In most cases, urban car free zones are those who draw most tourists.

The indirect macroeconomics benefits of less cars and more ebikes

Enjoying a more breathable urban air would spare billions on healthcare. More than 10,000 cars per square kilometre, during rush hours, is like having as many heaters reaching 900 C° temperatures and spitting toxic gases at 420 C°.

There are also costs and pollution related to the manufacturing of cars, the drilling and transport of oil and fossil fuels.

Moreover, pedalling is sport, involving all its health benefits, also because fitter workers are generally more productive. The ministry of economy of the Netherlands, a country much dedicated to biking, reckons that 9 billion Euros are yearly saved thanks to biking, corresponding to more than €500 per resident.

With decent bike lanes, ebike traffic would cause much less deaths and injuries than car traffic.

Individual benefits of ebikes versus cars

Compared even with the cheapest and smallest city cars, ebikes can save you tons of money and make you fitter and healthier.

Average annual cost of a small city car in Europe

Let’s consider a €17,000 gasoline car driven 80,000 kilometres over 10 years, mainly in urban areas:

• Devaluation €1400
• Maintenance (incl. tires) €400
• Gasoline (11km/l at 2€/l) €727
• Insurance €300
• Parking €50
• Total yearly cost €2,877

Let’s compare it with the average annual cost of two €2600 robust high quality city ebikes, since it would take 2 for 80,000 kilometres.

• Devaluation €500
• Maintenance (incl. tires) €50
• Total yearly cost €550

If you need just a lighter duty ebike, two cheaper 900 € ebikes would do the job for a reduced average annual cost, although it would entail higher maintenance costs

• Devaluation €150
• Maintenance (incl. tires) €100
• Total yearly cost €250

What hampers a more general adoption of ebikes for urban mobility

Even in cycling savvy countries like the Netherlands, ebikes have conquered more than 50% of the market. Nevertheless, they would need some of the following adaptations to spread even further:

• Sheltered bike parks and charging facilities both in condos and urban areas.
• A much better network of bike lanes
• A better theft protection, although progress is constantly made by ebike manufacturers
• Batteries that can’t catch fire, although quality batteries very seldom do
• A better price to quality ratio
• More standardisation cross-manufacturers compatibility
• Easier to access and broader spare parts availability

Pictures: ebike24, Facebook.